COVID-19 OUTBREAK AND ROLE OF TOURISM DEVELOPMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN PAKISTAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21837/pm.v19i19.1062Keywords:
Covid-19, Tourism Development, Economic Growth, PakistanAbstract
The current research aimed to find out the effect of tourism development on economic growth in Pakistan for the period (1995 to 2017) by using Canonical Regression Analysis (CCR) and Dynamic Least Square (DOLS) method. In addition, a unit root test is used to find out the static nature of the variables, and for the robust check, the authors utilize the Fully Modified Least Square (FMOLS) method. The results of the CCR and DOLS shows the key role of tourism development on growth, and FMOLS confirms these findings. In addition, the contribution of financial development is insignificant and positive. However, inflation harms economic growth, which depicts that the government of Pakistan will face severe challenges to achieve the targeted level of growth in future. In addition, an outbreak of Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) is another challenge that will cause a significant decline in tourism receipts.
Downloads
References
Ali, A. Ahsan. S., and Dziegielewski F. S. (2017). Social and family capital and youth career intention: A case study in Pakistan. Cogent Business & Management. 4:1362838 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2017.1362838
Ali, A. and Yousuf, S. (2019). Social Capital and Entrepreneurial Intention: Empirical Evidence from Rural Community of Pakistan. Global journal of Entrepreneurship research DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40497-019-0193-z
Ali, A. Bano, N. and Dziegielewski F. S. (2016). Role of AKRSP on Gender Development: A Case Study in Pakistan, Journal of Social Service Research Adnan Hye, Q. M., & Ali Khan, R. E. (2013). Tourism-led growth hypothesis: A case study of Pakistan. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 18(4), 303-313. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2012.658412
Andres, J., & Hernando, I. (1997). Does inflation harm economic growth? Evidence for the OECD. NBER Working Paper No. 6062. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w6062
Archer, B., & Cooper, C. (1998). The positive and negative impacts of tourism. In W. F. Theobald (Ed.), Global tourism (pp. 63–81). Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann.
Bahuguna, A. (2005). Tourism in India: A development perspective. The Indian Economic Journal, 39, 38–141.
Barro, R.J., (1995). Inflation and Economic Growth, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 166 – 176. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w5326
Beck, T., & Levine, R. (2004). Stocks markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence. Journal of Banking and Finance, 28, 423-442. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00408-9
Fletcher, J. (1994). Input-output analysis: Tourism management and marketing handbook. New York, NY: Prentice-Hall.
Goldsmith, R. W. (1969). Financial Structure and Development. New Haven: Yale University Press
Haider, H. (2020). Top story. Retrieved from https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/637732-covid-19-economy-may-face-gdp-loss-of-up-to-4-64-percent
Jalil, A., Mahmood, T., & Idrees, M. (2013). Tourism–growth nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL bounds tests. Economic Modelling, 35, 185-191. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.034
Jalil, A. & Ma, Y. (2008). Financial Development on Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from China and Pakistan. Journal of Economic Cooperation, 29 (2), 29-68
Khalil, S., Kakar, M. K., & Malik, A. (2007). Role of tourism in economic growth: Empirical evidence from Pakistan economy [with comments]. The Pakistan Development Review, 985-995. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30541/v46i4IIpp.985-995
Manzoor, F., Wei, L., Asif, M., Haq, M.Z. and Rehman, H. (2019). The Contribution of Sustainable Tourism to Economic Growth and Employment in Pakistan. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health. 16, 3785. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16193785
Mhadhbi, K. (2014). A new proxy for financial development and economic growth: What Causes What? Bootstrap panel causality for 21 low-income countries. International Journal of Research in Business Management, 2 (5), 11-24 DOI: https://doi.org/10.12691/ajams-2-4-2
Oh, C. O. (2005). The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy. Tourism Management, 26(1), 39–44. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2003.09.014
Rana, A. R. (2015). Promotion of tourism in Pakistan. Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Schumpeter, J. A. (1911). The Theory of Economic Development. Harvard University Press.
Stockman, A. C. (1981). Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash-in-advance economy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 8, 387–393. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(81)90018-0
UNWTO (2008). United Nations World Tourism Organization. Tourism satellite account: A recommended methodological framework.
UNWTO (2020). United Nations World Tourism Organization Impact assessment of the COVID-19 outbreak on International Tourism. Retrieved from https://www.unwto.org/impact-assessment-of-the-covid-19-outbreak-on international-tourism?
World Economic Forum. (2015). The travel & tourism competitiveness report, 2015. Geneva: Author.
World Travel and Tourism Council (2018). Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2018 Pakistan. Retrieved from https://www.wttc.org//media/files/reports/economicimpact research/archived/countries-2018/pakistan2018.pdf
World Economic Forum (2020). Retrieved from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/world-travel-coronavirus-covid19-jobs-pandemic-tourism-aviation/
Zortuk, M. (2009). The economic impact of tourism on Turkey’s economy: Evidence from cointegration tests. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 25(3), 231–239.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2021 Normah Abdul Latip, Rehmat Karim, Azizan Marzuki, Faqeer Muhammad, Attaullah Shah, Veronica Yilret Nanle, Mohd Umzarulazijo Umar
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 Unported License.
Copyright & Creative Commons Licence
eISSN: 0128-0945 © Year. The Authors. Published for Malaysia Institute of Planners. This is an open-access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.
The authors hold the copyright without restrictions and also retain publishing rights without restrictions.